Exponential growth is unintuitive. The default heuristics of our brains is that things will continue as they are, or keep growing linearly.
In the most intense phases of COVID19, exponential growth of case numbers, and thus hospitalizations, and the trigger-happy reaction needed to stop this exponential growth curve early was understood by most people.
In the case of climate change, there is a similar phenomenon. We consider the warming curve of 0.x degrees per year, and it seems linear. However, the number of extreme heat days, and the number of extreme weather phenomena, are the tail end of a distribution that is widening. Their numbers is growing exponentially, and with it the cost, both monetary, of human lives, and life quality – the fraction of the year where it is safe to go outside into nature may shrink.
It is easy to become blackpilled and say it is all pointless because there is too little political will and action. Exponential climate change damage is extremely bad. Have a look at the details and compare the +2° +3°, +4°, +5°, +6° scenarios in the IPCC report (2023, 2014).
But there is a uplifting, positive side for exponentially bad impact.
Small actions, including and especially in the later stages past +2° warming, have a huge benefit in avoiding an even worse outcome.
Don’t give up.
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